Syria Out

You should already know this, but in Syria's continuing effort to disprove my prediction from about a month ago that the Hariri assassination, without more, wouldn't be enough to change Lebanon, they have withdrawn the last of their troops.

This is in spite of several reversals of fortune. First, the pro-Syrian Lebanese government stonewalled the Rafiq Hariri investigation. Then, when demonstrators forced Prime Minister Karami to resign, President Emile Lahoud undid that victory by re-nominating him. When anti-Syrian demonstrators filled the streets in record numbers, a Hezbollah-sponsored counter-demonstration broke that record. When Syrian President Bashar Assad finally gave up some ground, he did so by pulling troops only as far back as the Bekaa Valley, because a reduced presence in Beirut would defuse some of the anti-Syrian hostility, and the troops could conceivably continue and increase their policy of harassment while stretching out their stay.

And yet it seems these reversals of fortune have been themselves reversed as quickly. The Hariri investigation hasn't stopped basically everyone in Lebanon from assuming Syria was responsible. Karami resigned a second time. The record-breaking pro-Syrian demonstration was outdone days later by an even larger anti-Syrian demonstration. And now the Syrian troops are gone.

None of which would have happened, of course, without George W. Bush.

Now first, a bit of credit where credit is surprisingly due. Pressure on Syria came not only from the U.S., but also from Jacques Chirac of all people. There can be no doubt that Assad thought to himself at some point, "If even that pansy fruitcake Chirac is pressuring us, we're screwed." And Paris' historical ties to the Syria-Lebanon region lends additional weight to French pressure. Not that I believe for a second that Chirac would have done anything at all other than use strong language, but strong language probably contributed.

The Lebanon story isn't over yet. Emile Lahoud is still the president, and unlike Iraq, Lebanon hasn't had the chance to vote on new leaders yet. The Syrian-friendly government is still in power and doubtless wants to stay in power. And there is a possibility that Hezbollah will have more of an influence on those elections that America would like.

From CNN.com:

"The Syrian army Chief of Staff, Gen. Ali Habib, defended his country's nearly three decade stay, saying Lebanon was being left a stronger nation. 'It goes without saying that Syrian armed forces didn't enter Lebanon because they wanted to, but because of a call from the Lebanese government.'"

It may be true that Syria entered pursuant to a call from the Lebanese government, during the destructive Lebanese Civil War, and it is certainly true that Lebanon is now stronger than it was in the 1970s. But then again, it has been stronger than it was in the 1970s for a long time. Habib's statement is pure horsecrap - Syria has had designs on unification ever since European nations arbitrarily carved up the region in the first place (thanks, France).

"U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan has dispatched a team to verify Syria's withdrawal."

Um, given the proclivity of UN troops to rape teen-agers wherever they go, we should all be nervous when Kofi Annan uses the word "withdrawal."

More: Syrian blogger Sasa has reports on the withdrawal here. Also of note, and I think I've been remiss if I haven't pointed this out before, is that some Lebanese civilians have resorted to violence against Syrian workers. Sasa notes that Assad gave a speech announcing the withdrawal a week ago, and you can find the text of that speech here, courtesy of Syria Times. Other than those links, I've found almost nothing from the Syrian papers or the other two Syrian bloggers I know of.

Update: Llama Butchers has a prediction for Bashar.